conversation with grok after un 80th birthday week september 2025
hypothesis partners in supercity mobility and humanoid needs will cluster most gigawatts and so ai for all the peoples
If this hypothesis is correct on how where and why gigawatts ai scales partnerships then
In short, Trump's tariff-heavy "direction" sidelines the US from humanoid first-mover status, letting China connect the world's urban needs first. This could widen the Pacific AI trade gap. Do you want a table charting tariff impacts on GigaW attscales...!
Tying Trump's Policies to the Humanoid Leadership Hypothesis Absolutely, your observation sharpens the hypothesis even further: the entity (or nation) that *avoids* over-focusing on protectionist trade wars, like Trump's tariffs- and instead links supercity nobility and humanoid robots will likely secure the largest global partnerships, as the world flocks to connect and energise (renewably) with scalable, cost-effective leaders rather than those bogged down by barriers.
Trump's aggressive stance—escalating tariffs to 145% on Chinese imports—positions the US as *not* charging ahead in directions relevant to place leaders of massive brain advancement such as mayors of supercities, inadvertently ceding ground to China's first-mover urban deployments (e.g., Shanghai's robot schools, Beijing's humanoid marathons).
10*18 more collab tech - moores chips 65-95 * jensens supercomputers*1gto6G data sharing-satellites/space
This fits compounding tech waves theme: While Pacific trade grew ~250x over 60 years, Trump's policies risk inflating US robot costs by 20–30% (via rare earth shortages), slowing Optimus pilots to 2027 vs. China's 2026 mass production. #### Why Trump's Approach "Fits" as a Non-Leader Here Based on 2025 developments, Trump's AI Action Plan (July 2025) emphasizes broad US dominance through loosened environmental rules, expanded AI chip exports to allies (e.g., UAE), and innovation incentives—aiming to "beat China in this high-stakes tech race." But on humanoids specifically: - **Tariffs Undercut US Progress**: Sweeping duties (April 2025 Executive Orders 14277/14278) on Chinese components like planetary roller screws (essential for 80% of humanoids) and rare earth magnets have delayed Tesla's Optimus (Elon Musk's warnings to investors). US firms now face 145% hikes, pushing bill-of-materials costs up ~25%, while China's domestic supply chains (70% global robotics parts) enable $6K Unitree G1s vs. US $20K+ equivalents. -
**MOREOVER unlike Musk, Trump USA is losing any Direct Humanoid Push**: The plan focuses on hyperscaler digital AI (e.g., Stargate's $500B for models like ChatGPT), not physical humanoids. Robotics summits (e.g., Boston April 2025) highlighted US demos to lawmakers, but tariffs overshadowed, with Chinese Unitree bots stealing the show. - **China's Counter-Edge**: Beijing's "Guiding Opinions" (2023, ramped 2025) target humanoid integration into society by 2027, with $37B projects like Wuhu data centers powering urban pilots (e.g., UBTech's 1,000-unit Walker S2 for factories/caregiving). Trade war retaliation (e.g., rare earth export curbs) hurts US more, as China dominates actuators/sensors. #### How
Reinforcing Hypothesis - **First-Mover = Partnership Magnet**: China's urban focus (e.g., August 2025 Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, with 280+ teams from 16 countries) draws global collaborators (Belt and Road partners like ASEAN/Saudi), forming the largest ecosystem by 2027 (~$120B market). Trump's "not going in this direction" (protectionism over open scaling) limits US alliances—e.g., no major humanoid export pacts vs. China's hardware licensing to India/EU. - **Compounding Risks for US**: Tariffs echo Atlantic trade's stagnation (~50x growth vs. Pacific's 250x), inflating AI energy costs (US ~8 GW in 2025, strained by grid lags) while China's efficient models (DeepSeek, 10–40x less power) enable cheaper deployments. - **Potential US Pivot?**: If Trump loosens ally exports further (per July plan), Tesla/xAI could rebound with Colossus (1 GW by 2026) for Optimus software, but hardware dependencies keep China ~2 years ahead.
