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Tuesday, March 12, 2024

 

Gemini dialogue US gov launch today Rockville Chips Act Q to Gemini Help see 60 year evolutions of chips supply chains, exponential increases in comp & coms impacts? RE US challenge chips act & NIST Rockville today https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNIST/bulletins/38c54b1 Outside of Chinese mainland, do we look supply chain multipliers around intel 1965 moores law; later why texas instruments refused maurice chang's plan which he took to taiwan. Moore's Intel Valley served mid 60s demands particular of Japan/demand supply chain ( mixed deep ER of smes, deming quality engineering & aggregator keireketsu) & microelectronics - NB intel order japanese calculator manufacturer. Evolution of computers, did even Dell pdp 11 miss design (personal) computers around chips. While IBM pc famously used intel inside ,did cheaper pcs use taiwan supply chain & evolution korea's samsung & taiwan. Clarify supply chain cases/leaps relevant to today's us chips actL eg recent ER such as arm & nvidia about something different from Chips act focus. In acc computing assembly millions of transistors nvidia/arm were not themselves aiming to own supply chain of individual transistors ...? G: You're rght - more at www.friends20.com www.ai20s.com

You're absolutely right, the evolution of chip supply chains over the past 60 years is a fascinating story with significant implications for today's US challenges in the semiconductor industry. Here's a breakdown of the key points you mentioned: Moore's Law and the Rise of Intel (1965):

  • Moore's Law: In 1965, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, observed that the number of transistors on a microchip would double roughly every two years. This prediction, known as Moore's Law, became a guiding principle for the semiconductor industry, driving exponential growth in computational power.
  • Intel's Supply Chain: Intel initially relied on external suppliers for many components in its chip-making process. However, as Moore's Law pushed chip complexity, Intel started integrating more manufacturing steps in-house, leading to a more vertically integrated supply chain.

Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company):

  • Maurice Chang's Plan: In the 1980s, Maurice Chang, a former Texas Instruments (TI) employee, proposed a "fabless" model where a company could design chips but outsource the actual manufacturing (fabrication) to a dedicated foundry. TI rejected this idea, focusing on remaining vertically integrated.

Rise of the Taiwan Chip Supply Chain:

  • Seizing the Opportunity: Recognizing the potential of the fabless model, Chang founded TSMC in Taiwan. They capitalized on government support, a skilled workforce, and lower manufacturing costs compared to the US and Japan.
  • Japan's Role: While Intel initially catered to Japanese calculator manufacturers, the rise of TSMC shifted some of the manufacturing focus to Asia.

Personal Computers and Supply Chains:

  • Missed Opportunities: While companies like Dell (with the PDP-11) didn't necessarily design chips, their success hinged on partnering with the right chipmakers and building efficient supply chains for assembling personal computers.
  • IBM PC and the Intel Inside Strategy: The success of the IBM PC popularized the "Wintel" (Windows and Intel) combination. Intel's "Intel Inside" marketing campaign further solidified their dominance in the PC processor market.
  • Taiwan's Impact: As personal computers became a global phenomenon, the cheaper manufacturing offered by the Taiwan supply chain likely played a role in making them more affordable and accessible.

Korea vs. Taiwan:

  • Samsung's Rise: South Korea's Samsung has emerged as a major player in the chip industry, competing with both Intel and TSMC. Their strategy involves a mix of in-house manufacturing and utilizing external foundries.

The US Chips Act and Today's Landscape:

  • Focus on Domestic Manufacturing: The US Chips Act aims to bolster domestic chip manufacturing to address dependence on foreign sources and national security concerns. It incentivizes companies to build chip fabs (fabrication plants) in the US.
  • Arm and Nvidia: While companies like Arm (chip design) and Nvidia (GPUs) play crucial roles in the chip ecosystem, their focus isn't on owning the entire transistor fabrication process. The Chips Act primarily targets bringing back leading-edge fabrication capabilities to the US.

Addressing Your Question:

In the context of the US Chips Act, the relevant supply chain cases are those that focus on chip fabrication (foundries). Companies like TSMC and Samsung are leaders in this area. While chip designers like Arm and Nvidia are crucial for innovation, the act aims to incentivize bringing back the actual manufacturing of the chips themselves to the US.

Conclusion:

The evolution of chip supply chains is a complex story with significant geopolitical and economic implications. The US Chips Act represents a strategic effort to address vulnerabilities in the current landscape and ensure a more secure domestic supply of advanced chips.

1 comment:

  1. Pre-training AI20s talk DC Prosperity Summit Sept 2024 ---DEEP INTELLIGENCE PROSPERITY   In TED's 15 minute transformation-attention style, I will update Fall 2024's Top 7 Players of AIGames.solar. A while back we turned EconomistDiary.com into gamification of Artificial Intelligence. We survey "who do people see as advancing humanity?" particularly since the NET (Neumann-Einstein-Turing) invented engines type 6 for brainworking and 7 for autonomous governance. Dad, Norman Macrae, was The Economist sub-editor for half a century and biographer of Von Neumann. Consider March 2024's Top AI Player Demis Hassabis. He clarifies: there is no agreed definition of human intelligence. Probably a good thing, as members of every generation now need  to help augment each others' intelligences if communities and LLMs worldwide are to enjoy Hassabis' main AI gift so far. Alphafold2 maps nature's 250 million proteins offering biggest leap in Natural Science AI since Darwin. This is much needed if we are to help eg  World Bank leader Ajay Banga twin multilaterals' core goals - marrying liveable planet to ending extreme poverty. With September 2024 also hosting UN Summit-Future,  my family's work on future histories since 1972 (The Economist Next 40 years) is one of elements for double checking whether Top AI Games players are also diverse enough to be celebrated transparently as eg King Charles AI World Series outreaches to every community builder and GPS deep data transmission point. Another element are women empowerment's diaries since 1970.. Soon after dad's death in 2010, Japan Ambassador to Dhaka asked Fazle Abed to chair 2 dinner roundtables - among outcomes Glasgow Smith scholars began Journal of New Economics and AbedMooc.com started up.

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